Horsemen ride 3 game losing streak into round 1

In consecutive weeks the Horsemen have faced the high point scorer of the league.

In consecutive weeks the Horsemen have faced a quarterback scoring 37 or more.

In consecutive weeks the Horsemen have faced a running back scoring 28 or more.

Now the Horsemen are riding a three game losing streak, which has seen them plummet from the 1 seed to the 4 seed, into a round 1 rematch with the Nosebleeds. This will be the second consecutive year that the Horsemen will battle the ‘Bleeds in the first round – but the first time that this matchup will decide the winner of the yearly Battle of TC Jester.

It’s been a decent year for the defending champions – but nothing spectacular. While their 8-5 record is the best in team history (a half game better than their prior best of 7-4-1), their 100.2 PPG is a huge drop from the 111.7 from the 2015 championship team. This point shortage is primarily fueled by the worst years in history for D/STs and K – despite using a relatively early pick on kicker to select Stephen Gostkowski.

Pos	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	All-Time
QB	22.27	21.40	18.80	20.07	20.46	20.60
RB	10.47	11.23	11.13	11.87	12.38	11.43
WR	10.41	10.13	13.05	13.78	11.42	11.82
TE	7.93	5.93	4.00	9.07	7.54	6.88
K	8.20	8.67	8.71	9.20	7.77	8.49
D/ST	6.67	7.07	9.00	8.87	4.85	7.36

After loafing around for 3 weeks, it’s time for business.

The Nosebleeds have not scored triple digit points against the Horsemen in back to back games ever. Their average prior to this most recent 129 point performance came following a stretch of 4 games averaging 75.75 PPG. These Nosebleeds are probably a little better than their prior historical performances would imply – as they have scored a team record 106.5 PPG this season, third best in history. Points were pretty easy to come by this year, though – as 3 of the top 10 scoring teams in league history came from this year’s Inner Loop division. Their floor has been extremely solid – only scoring below 90 in two weeks.

The Horsemen don’t like to lose in week 14. In the last four years, the Horsemen have gone 3-1 in week 14. They have not lost any week 14 game that would send them to the championship.

The Horsemen are an early 5.4 point favorite with a 57.9% chance of victory. This has proved to be an awful indicator of the final score – as the Horsemen have been favored in each of their five losses this season – normally by double figures.

Julio Jones remains a question mark with a turf toe injury and Lamar Miller remains a question mark with a lack of talent. Edelman would likely move into the WR2 role if Jones’ status were to go bad – which would bring LeGarrette Blount or Frank Gore into the starting lineup. Roethlisberger and Rivers have been dueling it out in practice and the starter will likely be a game time decision.

The winner of this final installment of the 2016 Battle of TC Jester will likely face Closet Hillbilly in the championship.